1. Fluctuations in the Luxury Watch Market: Current Conditions and Risk Alerts

In 2024, Morgan Stanley and LuxeConsult released their "2024 Swiss Watch Brands Top 50 Report," revealing a 3% decline in the overall export value of the Swiss watch industry to 25.9 billion Swiss Francs. This trend continued into March 2025, with Rolex prices in the secondary market plummeting to their lowest in four years. Notably, popular models like the "Green Dial Daytona" fell from a peak of 410,000, and the "Panda Daytona" dropped from 190,000.

LuxeConsult’s Top 50LuxeConsult’s Top 50

This price fluctuation is not coincidental. In recent years, the luxury watch market experienced a boom during the COVID-19 pandemic, attracting speculators and causing prices to soar in both primary and secondary markets. However, by 2024, the market began to return to rationality, with consumers focusing more on practicality rather than investment potential. Coupled with global economic uncertainties and changing consumer behavior, the "myth of retaining value" attached to luxury watches is unraveling.

For consumers looking to purchase special editions as an investment, extra caution is advised. For instance, in January 2025, the premium pricing of Rolex watches in the secondary market dropped to 56%, significantly lower than the 68% in January 2024. This trend may persist as Rolex adjusts its pricing strategies, further pressuring secondary market prices.

2. Analysis of the 2024 Swiss Watch Brand Top 50 List

2.1 Overall Market Performance

In 2024, the overall export value of the Swiss watch industry was 25.9 billion Swiss Francs, down 3% from 26.7 billion Swiss Francs in 2023. This marked the first decline after record-breaking growth in 2022 and 2023. The industry reached 24.9 billion Swiss Francs in 2022, with a subsequent rise to 26.7 billion Swiss Francs in 2023, marking a period of rapid growth. However, by 2024, the market began to slow due to global economic uncertainties, shifts in consumer behavior, and geopolitical factors.

Top Brands and Market Share DynamicsTop Brands and Market Share Dynamics

Additionally, the industry's sales volume fell from 16 million units in 2023 to 13.3 million units in 2024, though the average price per unit rose from 22,579 to 26,506 Swiss Francs. This indicates that despite declining sales, the high-end market remained robust, driving revenue growth for the industry.

2.2 Brand Performance and Market Share

The polarization trend in the Swiss watch market became more pronounced in 2024. Four major brands—Rolex, Cartier, Omega, and Patek Philippe—accounted for over 50% of total sales. Rolex maintained its leading position with a 32% market share, solidifying its dominance. Cartier ranked second with 8%, while Omega and Patek Philippe held 7% and 6.5% shares, respectively.

Brand Performance and Market ShareBrand Performance and Market Share

Notably, the concentration of these four brands increased significantly, with their total market share growing from 36.8% pre-pandemic to 47%, a 300-basis point increase year-over-year. This concentration highlights the significant polarization within the industry, with the gap widening between high and low to mid-range brands.

2.3 Trend Towards High-End Products

In 2024, the trend towards high-end products accelerated, with watches priced above 50,000 Swiss Francs accounting for 33.5% of the market value and contributing 84% of growth. This suggests consumers are increasingly inclined towards high-end watches rather than entry-level or mid-range products.

For instance, Patek Philippe's market share reached 6.5%, surpassing the entire watch segment of LVMH, which held a 5.7% market share. High-end independent brands such as Audemars Piguet and Richard Mille also performed exceptionally, continuing to expand their market share, highlighting the strong appeal of the high-end market.

Behind this high-end trend is the widespread practice of brands using price hikes to offset declining sales volumes. For example, although overall sales decreased, the average price per unit increased, indicating a focus on single watch value over sales volume.

2.4 Comparison of Sales Volume and Revenue

Despite a decline in overall sales volume (from 16 million watches in 2023 to 13.3 million in 2024), the increase in average price per unit reflects the strong performance in the high-end market.

2.5 Resilience of Independent Brands

Independent brands such as Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet, and Richard Mille performed well in 2024, continuing to expand their market share.

Rolex and Richemont Group's Secondary Market Performance

3.1 The Price Plunge of Rolex

Since Q2 2022, Rolex prices in the secondary market have been on a downward trend, falling by as much as 33% compared to their Q1 2022 peak. According to WatchCharts and Morgan Stanley, in January 2025, the premium pricing of Rolex in the secondary market decreased to 56%, down from 68% in January 2024. This is influenced by overall market pressures, adjustments in brand pricing strategies, and changing consumer preferences.

The Price Plunge of RolexThe Price Plunge of Rolex

Significantly, by Q4 2024, Rolex prices in the secondary market had fallen to their lowest in four years, even below January 2021 levels by 3%. This indicates a return to rationality in the luxury watch market, with consumers focusing more on actual value rather than investment properties.

3.2 Performance of Richemont Group

Richemont Group's performance in Q4 2024 was similarly challenging, with secondary market prices for its brands falling by an average of 2.4%. Although Cartier maintained strong popularity and performed relatively well, the group as a whole was unable to reverse its downward trajectory. For example, brands like Vacheron Constantin, Jaeger-LeCoultre, and A. Lange & Söhne saw secondary market prices drop by over 2%.

Vacheron Constantin's sales fell from 35,000 units in 2023 to 31,000 in 2024, with revenue dropping below 1 billion Swiss Francs, pushing it out of the "Billionaires' Club." These figures reflect Richemont Group's competitive challenges, particularly in the face of high-end market segmentation and changing consumer preferences, necessitating strategic adjustments to cope with downward pressures.

3.3 Potential of the Women's Watch Market

Despite the overall weakness in the secondary market, opportunities are not limited to men's watches. Brands like Cartier are demonstrating a promising outlook in the women's watch segment. Cartier, with its iconic designs and high brand recognition, continues to attract strong attention from female consumers, being one of the few brands to achieve sales growth in 2024, with annual sales reaching 680,000 units. Iconic collections like "Ballon Bleu" and "Tank" remain highly sought after, showcasing the potential and resilience of the women's watch market.

RolexRolex

Moreover, with the diversification of consumer preferences, the women's watch market is becoming a new battleground for brands. Richemont's Van Cleef & Arpels also performed well in 2024. Although revenue decreased, unit sales rose from 13,500 to 14,000, and market share increased. This indicates a growing demand for high-end women's watches, providing brands with new growth opportunities.

In the future, as female purchasing power grows and fashion demands diversify, the women’s watch market is poised to continue invigorating the industry, becoming an important development focus for Swiss watchmaking.

4. Rolex as a Stable Commodity

Despite significant price declines in the secondary market for Rolex in 2024, its status as a "stable commodity" remains unshaken. Rolex continues to be a benchmark in the luxury watch sector, supported by unparalleled brand influence, superb watchmaking craftsmanship, and sustained market demand. In 2024, Rolex maintained its top industry position with a 32% market share, underscoring its unassailable market standing.

In the long run, Rolex's potential for retaining value should not be overlooked. Its classic models like the "Submariner," "Datejust," and "Daytona" enjoy high recognition and collectible value worldwide. Data shows that although Rolex's sales declined slightly from 1,240,000 units in 2023 to 1,176,000 in 2024, its revenue grew from 10.1 billion Swiss Francs to 10.583 billion Swiss Francs. This reflects a strategy focused more on the value of individual watches rather than sales volume. This strategy not only enhances the brand's high-end image but also reinforces its value retention attributes.

Rolex as a Stable CommodityRolex as a Stable Commodity

However, short-term market fluctuations remind consumers to rationally consider the "value retention myth." Since Q2 2022, Rolex prices in the secondary market have declined by 33% from their peak, with the premium pricing ratio dropping to 56% in January 2025, significantly lower than 68% in January 2024. This reflects reduced market speculation and increased consumer attention to real value. Nonetheless, Rolex's long-term brand value and quality assurance equip it with strong competitiveness for future markets.

5. Last: Future of the Luxury Watch Market

The luxury watch market is undergoing profound adjustments, with price fluctuations and high-end trends coexisting. For consumers, choosing a brand requires comprehensive consideration of craftsmanship value, market trends, and personal needs rather than solely relying on "value retention" expectations. In the future, independent brands and high-end watches may emerge as more stable investment choices.